ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose 2.5% m/m in August after an upwardly revised 1.9% m/m increase in July. In trend terms, the series lifted 1.9% m/m and is up 7.7% in annual terms.
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ANZ Senior Economist, Jasmine Zheng, commented:
ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose 2.5% m/m in August, leaving the series 7.8% higher over the year. The Job Ads series is 21.4% above its 2010s average and has been resilient through the RBA’s rate hiking cycle, although labour market conditions typically respond to changes in economic activity with a lag. We expect economic momentum to soften over the coming months as higher interest rates continue to restrain demand. As a result, we anticipate Job Ads will gradually trend lower. However, given the resilience of the series, we expect the rise in the unemployment rate to be modest.
We view the July labour market data as soft. The unemployment rate lifted to 4.5%, employment fell 15.8k following an upwardly revised 80.2k rise in June, and hours worked declined 0.6% m/m. While the ABS highlighted larger-than-usual uncertainty around the estimates, we continue to expect labour market conditions to ease and unemployment to drift higher gradually over the months ahead.
Indeed Senior Economist, Callam Pickering, commented:
Strong gains across Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland drove growth in August, offsetting a slight decline in New South Wales. The number of Job Ads has trended higher in every state this year. In August, Christmas-related hiring began, with a surge in retail and food service roles. That will continue throughout September and typically peaks in early October. Gains were also strong in education and cleaning & sanitation. However, tech-related hiring continues to ease, with demand in software development, data & analytics and other tech roles falling modestly in recent months.
