Long-range forecast: First look – August to October 2026

BOM

Our long-range forecast for August to October currently shows below average rainfall is likely across large parts of south-western and eastern Australia, above average rainfall is likely for the north-west. Temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the country, and El Niño continues and is likely to persist into summer.

June temperatures were above average across much of Australia, except for parts of the west and north that were close to average. It was the fifth-warmest June on record.

June rainfall for Australia was the highest since 2016. While June has been drier than average for parts of the east and south-west, a mixture of cold fronts and cloud bands brought above average rainfall to large areas of the mainland.

Root-zone soil moisture is currently above average across much of the interior and parts of the south, especially in South Australia. Below average soil moisture persists in the south-west, and has emerged across parts of the east.

August to October is likely to have below average rainfall for large parts of south-western and eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north. Rainfall is likely to be above average in the north-west into the interior, and also along the north-east coast.

For July to September, near-median to high streamflow is forecast for most sites in northern Australia and much of the south to south-east. Low streamflow is likely for many sites in the south-west and parts of the east.

Daytime temperatures for August to October are very likely to be above average across most of the country south of the tropics. Cooler days are likely for some areas of northern Australia. Night-time temperatures are very likely to be above average across most areas.

Sea surface temperatures for August to October are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including near south-eastern Australia. The El Niño in the tropical Pacific is expected to continue until at least summer while a neutral or positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also possible.

We update our long-range forecast regularly. Select your location to

/Bureau of Meteorology Public Release. View in full here.