October temperatures were above average for most areas. Heatwave warnings were issued unusually early in Tasmania, with Hobart recording 2 consecutive days above 30 °C for the first time in October.
October was wetter than average across most of the mainland. Persistent onshore flow and inland troughs brought heavy rainfall and flooding to north-east New South Wales, Queensland and central regions, with some areas receiving their highest October rainfall on record. Several cold fronts carried tropical moisture resulting in heavy rainfall in Victoria. In contrast, south-west Western Australia and much of Tasmania were drier than average.
October also brought some significant severe weather. A tornado was observed at Ulladulla, New South Wales early in the month, while severe storms across central Australia in mid-October brought damaging winds to Alice Springs.
Root-zone soil moisture has increased across large parts of the east following recent rainfall. Most of Australia has wetter than average soils. However, for parts of the west and south-east, soil moisture remains below average. Streamflow in late October was above average across many sites in the east and north and below average across most sites in the south. Combined, water storages across Australia are about 71% full – similar to this time last year.
The northern Murray-Darling Basin is currently at 52% of capacity, a decrease of around 27% from last year. The volume in many other storages across the east and south has increased. These include storages in the southern Murray-Darlin Basin, currently at around 72% of capacity; and the South Australian Gulf, currently at about 82% of capacity.
Looking ahead, above average rainfall is forecast for November to January across parts of western, central and eastern Australia. However, parts of the south-east and far north are likely to have below average rainfall. While parts of northern Australia are forecast to have below average rainfall across the coming months, individual heavy rain events are still possible. This includes rainfall from tropical cyclones, with the season beginning in November.
Temperatures are very likely to be above average for most of Australia from November to January. There is an increased chance of unusually warm days, meaning temperatures in the top 20% for this time of year. There’s also a very high chance of unusually warm nights. This means heatwave risk is elevated as we approach the warmer months.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to warm across the Australian region over the coming months. There is an increased risk of marine heatwaves, especially to our south-east early in the season. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is now underway and in the tropical Pacific, El Niño is forecast to strengthen further. Strong El Niño events don’t necessarily mean stronger impacts for Australia. Many factors influence our rainfall and as the climate warms, more moisture in the atmosphere can increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding.
In summary, our forecast for November to January shows:
– above average rainfall for parts of western, central and eastern Australia
– below average rainfall in parts of the far north and south-east; unusually warm days and nights
– and a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are underway.
Visit the bureau’s website and select your location for the latest long-range forecast. Bye for now.
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.
