Before the High Court handed down its recent controversial decision on the proposed expansion of a New South Wales coal mine, many environmentalists were bracing for a loss. Time and again, courts have given coal and gas projects the green light over environmental concerns.
Authors
- Robyn Gulliver
Casual Research Fellow, School of Education, Deakin University
- Tracy Schultz
Research fellow, The University of Queensland
But not this time. With a split three-two judgement, the court ruled the approval for the Mount Pleasant mine expansion invalid, declaring that NSW planning authorities failed to properly consider the overseas emissions the project would generate.
The win capped a four-year campaign by a community group from NSW’s Upper Hunter region. However, the decision goes beyond this one mine, directly affecting the 17 other coal proposals in the NSW planning pipeline.
But it was not all good news. Critics argue the NSW government is trying to bypass the court ruling by pledging to change the law to allow the mining company to keep producing coal at its expanded rate of 16.5 million tonnes a year until 2032.
This begs the question: was this outcome a win or not?
Partial wins are the norm
It’s tempting to see environmental campaigns as wins or losses: either a mine is stopped or it isn’t, a law is passed or it isn’t.
Our latest research suggests most campaigns end up somewhere in between.
Our new study is the first to measure what an entire environmental movement achieves. We screened more than 3,700 environmental groups to build a database of 2,139 named campaigns, dating back to the 1960s.
For each campaign, we recorded the goal, the target and when it began and ended. We then checked published evidence, such as government decisions and news reports, to see whether each goal was fully achieved, partly achieved or not achieved at all.
Partial success was the most common outcome. Almost two thirds (62.5%) of the campaigns made at least some progress towards their goal. Only one in five fully achieved it.
However, the campaign to end native forest logging in Victoria shows these partial wins can add up. Beginning with anti-woodchipping activism in the early 1990s, campaigners won protections one forest at a time, from the rugged Wongungarra Valley to the rainforests of the Otways .
In 2023, the government announced native timber harvesting in state forests would end the following year, citing ongoing “litigation processes and increasingly severe bushfires” as the main reasons for its decision.
No single win ended native logging. Thirty years of partial gains eventually did.
What makes campaigns more likely to succeed?
Campaigns come in every shape and size. Some aim for a single, concrete decision, like the demand to ban dumping dredge spoil – organic matter removed during dredging, including sand, soil and debris – in the Great Barrier Reef .
Others aim to change how people live, from eating less meat to growing beards or braids to fund tree planting.
Our research suggests there are two key factors that influence if a campaign achieves its main goal.
Clear and specific goals
Campaigns against mines and fossil fuel projects usually name a specific goal, such as ending fracking in Queensland’s Lake Eyre basin, so their outcomes are easy to measure. We could measure the success of 93% of the mining campaigns studied.
In contrast, sustainability campaigns often set broad goals, such as helping residents save energy . But a win that can’t be clearly measured is much harder to celebrate.
Examples of clear, specific goals for a conservation campaign are the protection of a specific forest or the declaration of a new national park .
Among the campaigns we could verify, 78% of conservation campaigns achieved at least some success, compared with 66% of climate campaigns. This was largely because climate campaigns more often pursue systemic goals, such as cutting national emissions by 75% before 2030 . Such sweeping goals are difficult to achieve, with only 17% of verifiable climate campaigns achieving their goal in full.
The target matters
Campaigns aimed at banks were the most successful of those we studied, with 28 of 30 achieving some success.
For example, NAB stopped lending to Whitehaven Coal after campaigners put pressure on the bank by dropping into local NAB branches, sending emails and making phone calls.
Campaigns targeting superannuation funds, such as the pressure on HESTA to divest from fossil fuels, did nearly as well, with 16 of 19 achieving some success.
Campaigns aimed at politicians fared worse. Only 39% achieved their goal in part or in full, compared with 56% of campaigns aimed at government bodies such as departments, agencies or councils.
Small wins can make a difference
The world faces a triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution. Environmental campaigns offer communities a way to come together and demand change .
But such change requires more of us to get involved. Research shows people are more likely to act when they believe action works. That’s why it’s crucial to celebrate every win, no matter how small or incremental.
The Mount Pleasant decision reminds us what a well-designed environmental campaign looks like: a clear goal, a specific decision to challenge and a community willing to stay the course. No single campaign will solve the planetary crisis. But win by win, even partial ones, environmental campaigners are proving change is possible.
