New modelling has been provided to SA Health from the University of Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences and School of Biological Sciences.
It takes into account the population age distribution, vaccination status (current and future prediction) the number of people who have already had a COVID-19 infection, characteristics of COVID-19 variants and how many of the COVID-19 cases we think we are detecting through testing. It also approximates ‘mixing behaviour’ (including school holidays).
The modelling is calibrated regularly against our actual case numbers and hospital admission data.
This version of the mathematical COVID model for South Australia has considered:
- Strong messaging on mask use.
- Increased antiviral use with changes to PBS prescribing guidelines.
- Reinfection period decreased from 12 to four weeks.
- Increased uptake of fourth COVID vaccine dose.
The model provides estimates of hospital case numbers both for people admitted for COVID-19 (slide 2) and for people who incidentally test positive for COVID but have been admitted for other reasons (slide 3).
Because the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 variants are relatively new, there is most certainty around the fact that we will be having another increase in cases in South Australia (a new wave) but less certainty about the height of the wave and when the peak will occur (i.e., when the case numbers are likely to drop).
Download the SA COVID-19-Ready Modelling (PDF 1.1MB)
