New University of Washington research analyzes global fertility trends.Mustafa Omar/Unsplash
Widespread use of contraceptives and, to a lesser extent, girls’ education through at least age 14 have the greatest impact in bringing down a country’s fertility rate.
Education and family planning have long been tied to lower fertility trends. But new research from the University of Washington analyzes those factors to determine, what accelerates a decline in otherwise high-fertility countries.
In a paper published July 23 in Population and Development Review, Daphne Liu, a doctoral student in statistics at the UW, and Adrian Raftery, a UW professor of statistics and sociology, explore two nuanced questions: Is increasing contraceptive use or reducing demand more effective in family planning? And, is it the number of years girls attend school or the overall enrollment of children in school that makes education a factor in fertility?
“Policymakers in countries with high fertility rates are often interested in accelerating their fertility decline, since rapid population growth can lead to a number of unwanted economic, environmental and public health consequences,” said Liu. “Policies that increase access to education and family planning are generally thought to accelerate fertility decline by empowering individuals, particularly girls and women, to achieve their own desires in life. Our work aims to explore what aspects of a country’s education and family planning have the greatest impact on fertility decline.”
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