International Migration 11 September

International migration statistics give the latest outcomes-based measure of migration, which includes estimates of migrants entering or leaving New Zealand.

Key facts

Annual migration
Annual migration by citizenship
Monthly migration
Migration with Australia – year ended December 2023
Latest revisions

Annual migration

Provisional estimates for the July 2024 year compared with the July 2023 year were:

• migrant arrivals: 200,800 (± 1,200), down 6 percent
• migrant departures: 133,600 (± 1,000), up 36 percent
• annual net migration: gain of 67,200 (± 1,600), compared with a net gain of 116,200 (± 200).

The 133,600 migrant departures in the July 2024 year are, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period.

Annual migrant arrivals provisionally peaked at 237,100 in the year ended October 2023.

Annual net migration provisionally peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 136,700.

The long-term average for July years (2002 to 2019) before COVID-19 is 119,700 migrant arrivals, 91,600 migrant departures, and a net migration gain of 28,000.

Migrants are people changing their country of residence, regardless of their country of citizenship or visa status. A 12-month threshold is used to classify migrants from non-migrants, aligned with international guidelines on measuring migration.

Annual migration by citizenship

The provisional net migration gain of 67,200 in the July 2024 year was made up of a net gain of 123,000 non-New Zealand citizens and a net migration loss of 55,800 New Zealand citizens.

Text alternative for diagram International migration estimates (provisional), year ended July 2024.

For migrant arrivals in the July 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 41,100 (± 300) arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• New Zealand: 25,200 (± 300)
• Philippines: 24,600 (± 200)
• China: 23,600 (± 300)
• Fiji: 7,900 (± 200)
• Sri Lanka: 6,500 (± 100)
• South Africa: 6,300 (± 100).

For migrant departures in the July 2024 year, citizens of New Zealand were the largest group, with 81,000 (± 800) departures. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• China: 7,200 (± 200)
• United Kingdom: 5,500 (± 100)
• Australia: 5,000 (± 200)
• India: 4,100 (± 200)
• United States: 3,400 (± 100).

Citizens of India, Philippines, China, and Fiji drove net migration gains in the July 2024 year. Country of citizenship is the nationality of passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.

For non-New Zealand citizens, the net migration gain of 123,000 in the July 2024 year compares with a net migration gain of 153,800 in the July 2023 year. The long-term average for July years (2002 to 2019) is a net migration gain of 47,700 a year.

The July 2024 year provisionally saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens:

• 81,000 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record (before 2024) of 72,400 in the February 2012 year
• net migration loss of 55,800, exceeding the previous record (before 2023 and 2024) of 44,400 in the February 2012 year.

For New Zealand citizens, there was an average annual net migration loss of 26,600 in the July years (2002 to 2013) and net migration loss of 5,700 in the July years (2014 to 2019).

Monthly migration

Provisional estimates for July 2024 compared with July 2023 were:

• migrant arrivals: 17,500 (± 600), down 5 percent
• migrant departures: 12,100 (± 600), up 41 percent
• monthly net migration: gain of 5,300 (± 800), compared with a net gain of 9,800 (± 200).

There were provisionally 5,900 migrant arrivals on student visas in July 2024. This is the highest for a month since 6,000 in February 2023.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration with Australia – year ended December 2023

There was a provisional net migration loss of 27,200 people to Australia in the year ended December 2023. This was made up of 17,300 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 44,500 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged about 30,000 a year from 2004 to 2013, and 3,000 a year from 2014 to 2019.

The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended December 2023 was made up of a net loss of 26,700 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 500 non-New Zealand citizens. This compares with a net migration loss to Australia of 14,600 in the year ended December 2022, made up of a net loss of 13,600 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 1,000 non-New Zealand citizens.

In the December 2023 year, 54 percent of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

Net migration loss to Australia in 2023 (published in July 2024 and based on provisional data to December 2023) has more information.

These net migration estimates draw on two Infoshare series (select ‘Tourism’, then ‘International Travel and Migration – ITM’):

• Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type, and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly) – this uses Stats NZ monthly estimates currently available to July 2024.
• Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia by CLPR, citizenship, and birthplace (Quarterly) – this uses Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly estimates currently available to December 2023. Data for the March 2024 quarter will be available in late-September 2024.

As the country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

Latest revisions

Migration estimates from April 2023 are provisional and subject to revision because it is not yet known whether some travellers are migrants or non-migrants.

Why migration estimates change has more information.

From August 2024 onwards, starting with the release of June 2024 estimates, a new training period was implemented for the international migration model.

Adjusting the training window for the international migration model (published 6 August 2024) and International migration: June 2024 (published 13 August 2024) have more information on the change of training period.

We encourage customers to make their own judgement on whether to use provisional migration estimates for the latest months, which have higher uncertainty, or provisional migration estimates for older months, which have lower uncertainty. Annual arrival and departure estimates are subject to notably less revision at five to six months after the reference period.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017 to July 2024 contains a history of published migration estimates and revisions.

This month, revisions to the preceding month June 2024 were:

• migrant arrivals down 400 (3 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 1,400 (7 percent), and revisions were generally downwards, over the previous 12 months (June 2023 to May 2024).
• migrant departures down 800 (6 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 2,700 (17 percent), and revisions were all downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration up 400. The average revision size to the preceding month was 2,000, and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months.

Text alternative for graph Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-July 2024.

This month, revisions to the preceding year (ended June 2024) were:

• migrant arrivals down 2,700 (1 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 5,100 (2 percent), and revisions were generally downwards, over the previous 12 months (year ended June 2023 to year ended May 2024).
• migrant departures down 1,200 (1 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 5,100 (4 percent), and revisions were all downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration down 1,600. The average revision size to the preceding year was 5,200, and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months.

Text alternatives

Text alternative for diagram International migration estimates (provisional), year ended July 2024
Diagram shows outcomes-based (provisional) estimates of migration, by citizenship (New Zealand or non-New Zealand) for the year ended July 2024. Overall, net migration is 67,200, made up of a net loss of 55,800 NZ citizens (based on 25,200 migrant arrivals, a 7 percent increase on the year ended July 2023, and 81,000 migrant departures, a 32 percent increase) and a net gain of 123,000 non-NZ citizens (based on 175,600 migrant arrivals, a 8 percent decrease on the year ended July 2023, and 52,600 migrant departures, a 43 percent increase). Estimates are provisional as of 11 September 2024. Source: Stats NZ.

Text alternative for graph Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-July 2024
Graphs show monthly revisions to provisional migrant arrivals, migrant departures, and net migration for each month from November 2018 to July 2024. The data is shown in three line graphs arranged one after the other vertically, starting with migrant arrivals (top), migrant departures (middle), and net migration (bottom). The vertical axis shows estimated number of migrants. Months are labelled on the horizontal axis. Source: Stats NZ.

More data

Use Infoshare to access time-series data for international travel and migration:

Subject category: Tourism
Group: International travel and migration – ITM

Definitions and metadata

International migration – DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce international travel and migration statistics.

International migration concepts – DataInfo+ gives definitions of terms used in this release.

Subnational short-term NZ-resident arrivals – DataInfo+ gives methodology for determining the New Zealand-location information in short-term New Zealand-resident arrival records.

Provisional migration estimates

Comparisons between the July 2024 and 2023 months and years use the latest provisional estimates for each period.

The provisional estimates have 95 percent confidence intervals (±) beside them – the wider the interval, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate. However, these intervals reflect the model uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.

Migration estimates in more recent months have greater uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier periods.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration data transformation has more information about the migration estimates, including the 12/16-month rule and a monthly summary of the number of border movements, the number requiring modelling as migrants or non-migrants, and the history of revisions to migration estimates.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017 to July 2024 also has more information.

Why migration estimates change

The outcomes-based measure of migration with provisional and final estimates is the official way we measure migration in New Zealand.

International migration uses new official measure has more information.

To classify a border crossing as a migrant movement, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, and it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available, using the 12/16-month rule.

To produce timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. As new data becomes available each month, the provisional migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. This causes shifts in the estimated number of migrant arrivals and migrant departures, and thus changes in the net migration estimates.

Technical enquiries

Dave O’Donovan
03 964 8924
[email protected]

ISSN 2624-2702

Next release

International migration: August 2024 will be released on 11 October 2024.