The report projects that the number of Australians aged 85 and over will almost triple – from 625,000 to 1.9 million – over the next 40 years, while life expectancy continues to rise and demand across health and aged care grows with it.
“To understand the scale of that challenge, imagine the populations of the Gold Coast, Newcastle, Wollongong and Geelong combined – except every resident is aged over 85,” Retirement Living Council Executive Director Daniel Gannon said.
“That is the ageing shift Treasury says Australia needs to prepare for.”
Mr Gannon said this signals a population shift arriving as Australia is already short of homes, care workers and age-friendly communities.
“Living longer is a triumph. But it completely changes the equation for Australia. The challenge now is making sure those extra years are lived in homes and communities that support independence, connection and care,” he said.
“We’re planning for more health spending, more aged care and a much larger care economy, but housing is still too often treated as a separate conversation. It isn’t.
“The risk isn’t that Australians are living longer. The risk is that our housing and care systems are ageing more slowly than we are.
“This isn’t just tomorrow’s problem – it’s tomorrow’s problem on our doorstep today.”
If Australia gets the housing piece wrong, it will make every other part of the ageing challenge harder – hospitals, aged care, the workforce and government budgets.
“A home that keeps someone independent, connected and able to receive care isn’t just a roof over their head. It is part of the nation’s ageing infrastructure,” he said.
Retirement villages are already doing what policy is still struggling to join up – housing, care and community in one place. The latest PwC-RLC Retirement Census shows 59 per cent of responding villages deliver regulated Support at Home internally, another 14 per cent do so through a partner and 30 per cent have residential aged care on site or co-located.
These communities can also help older Australians remain independent for longer, with RLC modelling showing that delaying entry into residential aged care by two years could save the aged care system around $1 billion annually.
Together, those figures point to the same policy conclusion – housing, care and community need to be planned together, rather than treated as separate problems.
The need is already showing up in the market. The Census recorded 26,825 retirement village waitlist registrations across Australia, while construction expectations have fallen for three consecutive quarters despite strong long-term demand.
Meanwhile, about 3,700 Australians are currently stuck in hospitals waiting for an aged care bed, while Federal Health Minister Mark Butler says Australia needs to open 10 new aged care facilities every month for the next 20 years just to keep pace with demand.
“Australia doesn’t have an ageing forecast problem. We have a housing, planning and care delivery problem.
“If policymakers get this wrong, the pressure won’t disappear. It will show up later in hospitals, aged care waitlists and family homes.
“Longer lives are something to celebrate. Now Australia must build the homes, communities and care systems that make those extra years work,” Mr Gannon said.
