On the eve of New Zealand’s general election, final polls show the right retaining its lead, but with support continuing to shift towards the left, and the centrist Opportunity Party potentially holding the balance of power.
Author
- Adrian Beaumont
Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Right-wing parties (National, ACT and New Zealand First) led left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori) by 2.3 points in the final 1News-Verian poll.
The right also led by 5.3 points in the Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union and by 2.5 points in the Freshwater poll for The Post.
Opportunity polled 6.2% in Verian, 5.8% in Curia and 5.1% in Freshwater. While the party is above the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament (without winning a single-member electorate) in all three, it is only just above the line in the Freshwater poll.
If Opportunity falls below the threshold and fails to enter parliament, the right’s lead over the left in all three polls would give it a majority of seats. But if Opportunity enters parliament, as expected, it will gain the balance of power.
The possibility of overhangs on left and right, and the fact Te Pāti Māori is ignoring the party vote and campaigning for Māori electorate seats only, add uncertainty to projections.
Below is the final poll graph before the election. In all three polls taken in the past week, there has been movement to the left. The sharp shift to the left in the Verian poll suggests the previous week’s Reid Research poll that gave the left a lead is less of an outlier.
Verian poll
The final Verian poll , conducted from October 29 to November 2 from a sample of 1,006, gave National 30% of the party list vote (up one since last week’s Verian poll ). Labour was on 29% (up two), the Greens 16% (up one), ACT 10% (down two), NZ First 8% (down two), Opportunity 6% (steady) and Te Pāti Māori 0.4% (up 0.3).
Using the party support to one decimal point gives us a clearer picture: 29.5% National, 28.8% Labour, 16.4% Greens, 10.0% ACT, 8.4% NZ First and 6.2% Opportunity. These figures give right-wing parties a 2.3-point lead, down sharply from 9.1 points in the previous week’s Verian poll. It’s the lowest right lead in a Verian poll since July.
By a factor of 49 to 22, respondents were optimistic rather than pessimistic about the economic outlook in the next 12 months (46 to 22 previously).
Other polls
The Curia poll’s 5.3-point lead for the right was down from 6.8 points in its early October poll, with Opportunity up one point to 5.8%. This poll was conducted from October 28 to November 3 from a sample of 1,000.
The Freshwater poll’s 2.5-point lead for the right was down from 3.4 in mid-October, with Opportunity down 0.3 points to 5.1%. This poll was conducted from October 29 to November 3 from a sample of 1,044.
A Morgan poll was also released, but it was conducted from September 28 to October 25, well before the most recent polls, from a sample of 859. This gave the right a 3.5-point lead, well down from 10.5 points in the September Morgan poll. Opportunity was up 1.5 points to 8%.
Final vote count
New Zealand polls close at 7pm (5pm AEDT) on Saturday November 7. Results will be released progressively during the evening, but after election night there are no updates until final results (including special votes) are released on November 27.
In past elections, the left-wing parties have gained one to two seats from the right-wing parties once special votes are counted.
