Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) latest Australian Cattle Industry Projections – September Update shows improved seasonal conditions and long-term productivity gains are supporting historically high cattle turn-off while slowing the herd contraction that was previously forecast.
MLA Market Information Manager Stuart Bull said that was making the herd outlook more resilient than previously anticipated.
“Historically, slaughter at these levels would have been associated with a much sharper contraction in the national herd,” Mr Bull said.
“However, what we’re seeing now is a more productive cattle herd, where improved reproductive performance and faster movement through production systems, supported by improved seasonal conditions, are allowing the industry to sustain high turn-off while maintaining a stronger breeding and calf base.”
Herd and production drivers
- Details of the key forecasts include:
- Adult cattle slaughter growing from 9.3 million head in 2025 to 9.6 million head in 2026, before easing to 9.2 million in 2027 and 8.8 million in 2028.
- Annual feedlot turn-off exceeding four million head for the first time in 2025–26
- Average carcase weights hitting 313kg in 2026 and increasing as the slaughter mix shifts towards heavier steers and bullocks, and grainfed production continues to expand.
- The national cattle herd forecast to ease from 30.8 million head in 2026 to 30.1 million in 2027 and 29.7 million in 2028.
Global demand remains strong
Australian beef exports are forecast to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, supported by strong global demand and tight beef supplies in several major producing countries.
The United States remains a key source of demand, with its cattle herd at its lowest level in more than 75 years and domestic production constrained by limited cattle availability.
“Global fundamentals remain supportive for Australian beef, although exporters are navigating a more complex trading environment,” Mr Bull said.
“A stronger Australian dollar and changing tariff settings in markets including China and South Korea are creating some headwinds, but Australia’s broad market access remains an important strength.”
Live cattle exports have faced greater pressure, falling 25% year-on-year during the first seven months of 2026 as high cattle prices, exchange rates, freight costs and competition weighed on importer margins.
Indonesia remains Australia’s largest live cattle market, accounting for around 79% of exports.
Looking ahead
Mr Bull said while MLA’s longer-term projections assume average seasonal conditions, the sector enters the next period from a strong position, despite some uncertainty.
“By 2028, Australian beef and veal production is forecast to remain above 2025 levels despite a smaller national herd and lower slaughter,” Mr Bull said.
“As cattle availability gradually tightens, slaughter is expected to ease, but higher carcase weights and continued productivity gains should help maintain strong beef production.”
MLA’s Market Information Team will present the latest projections and discuss the major drivers of Australian cattle supply during the September 2026 Cattle Projections webinar on Wednesday 23 September from 11am–12pm AEST.
To access the full report, visit: Cattle Projections
